Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

811
FXUS64 KAMA 180409
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1009 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

- Watching for the potential for snow late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night, primarily in the western Panhandles. Totals
look to range from 0.5" to 1.5", though there is a 10-30% chance to
exceed 1.5" in the far western Panhandles and across most of Oldham
county.

- Frigid temperatures are expected Saturday night through Monday
night. Wind chills are expected to be bottom out around zero or
below zero each night on Sunday night and Monday night, with Monday
night being the coldest. Cold Weather Advisories may be needed
either or both nights for portions of the Panhandles.

- Watching for the potential for snow Monday through Monday night.
Confidence in potential outcomes is very low at this moment, but at
this time the northeastern combined Panhandles is the most favored
area to see accumulating snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 208 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

A cold front is moving through the Texas Panhandle at the time of
writing, but the cold air associated with the front is still back in
Nebraska moving into northwestern Kansas. Winds ahead and behind the
front are breezy, generally 15 to 25 mph... though the far southern
Texas Panhandle is seeing 25 to 30 mph sustained winds with brief
periods of winds reaching 35 mph. Winds behind the cold front are
proving to be breezy as well, but most signs point toward winds
weakening across much of the Panhandles, except perhaps the eastern
Panhandles, this evening.

Clouds will move in from the north Saturday morning which will help
keep the very cold airmass in place as more cold air moves in. Have
therefore lowered high temperatures for Saturday to keep highs in
the low to mid-20s in the north and upper-20s to low-30s in the
south.

A shortwave trough will approach the Panhandles later in the
afternoon and could begin to produce snow in the northwestern
Panhandles around 6 PM. There are still questions regarding how far
east this snow will extend, but it will move southward with time.
Latest guidance suggests that this initial snow activity will weaken
as it approaches the Canadian River Valley. However, there are
indications that there will be re-development south of the Canadian
River Valley either due to the upsloping terrain of the southern
bank of the Canadian River Valley and/or due to isentropic lift
(shown by the operational GFS).

Generally, there has been a downtrend of QPF compared to previous
forecasts which is resulting in lesser snow totals... though we are
still expecting an inch or more in the western half of Cimarron and
Dallam counties, as well as northwestern and far western Hartley
county. As such, will leave the current Winter Weather Advisory
alone for those counties.

All that said, there is still potential for snow to reach or exceed
an inch in portions such as northern Deaf Smith, northwestern
Randall, and southwestern Potter counties. The NBM, which does take
more proper snow:liquid ratios based on the environment into account
other than assuming the standard 10:1 ratio, does give the
aforementioned portions of the counties a 20-40% chance to reach or
exceed 1" of snow... including Amarillo which has a 10-20% chance.
The LREF, when assuming 15:1 ratio (which is the lowest ratio
expected in this case), gives roughly half the probabilities the NBM
does. The HREF, when using the same methodology of the LREF as noted
above, generally looks more similar to the NBM probabilities.

Have toyed with the idea of extending the Winter Weather Advisory to
Oldham county, but will opt against it with this forecast package
given the trend of lower QPF... but it is feasible that Oldham
county could need to be added if the previously mentioned signal
persists.

Temperatures plummet Saturday night as Arctic air continues to
filter in. There will likely be a window of opportunity for lows to
drop even more, perhaps below zero, depending where the snow pack
exists and if clouds can clear quickly enough overnight. In that
case, would need to monitor the northwestern combined Panhandles for
a Cold Weather Advisory.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Sunday will begin with partly cloudy skies, but clouds will slowly
creep back in from west to east throughout the day. Have once again
lowered high temperatures for Sunday given the very cold airmass and
mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will rebound some
on Sunday night, but widespread teens to single digits are still
anticipated.

Monday, most of the CONUS will be under the influence of a longwave
trough. Meanwhile, a positively tilted shortwave trough will move
toward the Panhandles from the northwest. Still lots of
uncertainties with this next potential system, snow potential looks
to mostly favor the northeastern half of the combined Panhandles.

Monday night looks to be the coldest night thus far this season with
temperatures ranging from around 0 degrees in the northwest to
around 10 degrees in the southeast. Depending upon where snow falls
from the Saturday system and the Monday system, there`s room for
temperatures to be even lower in those areas. Additionally, as it
stands now, wind chills are expected to be widespread around 0
degrees to -15 degrees. Cold Weather Advisories will likely be
needed Monday night, and cannot rule out the possibility of an
Extreme Cold Warning in portions of the northwestern
combined Panhandles if it trends colder.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through about 15-20z as we await the
onset of some light snow. Thereafter MVFR/IFR conditions, mainly
at KGUY and KDHT are expected. Right now prob30s set up for snow
from 15-02z. Better chances for KAMA will be after the 18z time
period, but right now not enough confidence for a PROB30. Winds
out of the north northeast around 10-15kts for most of the TAF
period.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                23  30  11  26 /   0  20  20   0
Beaver OK                  21  27   9  24 /   0  20   0   0
Boise City OK              17  23   3  23 /   0  60   0   0
Borger TX                  23  30  13  28 /   0  30  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              23  30  11  29 /   0  50  20   0
Canyon TX                  23  31  11  27 /   0  20  20   0
Clarendon TX               24  34  13  29 /   0  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 18  26   4  25 /   0  50  10   0
Guymon OK                  19  25   6  24 /   0  50   0   0
Hereford TX                22  31  10  28 /   0  30  30   0
Lipscomb TX                21  27  11  26 /   0  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   22  28  11  26 /   0  20  10   0
Shamrock TX                24  33  14  29 /   0  10   0   0
Wellington TX              26  35  15  29 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     TXZ001-006.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...89