Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

809
FXUS64 KAMA 141134
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
534 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Dry and windy conditions continue to trend for next Tuesday and
  Wednesday maybe even into Thursday, increasing the chances of
  critical fire weather conditions.

- Tuesday will be the day of highest concern for both critical
  Fire Weather, and potentially high winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Positively tilted trough centered over the Phoenix to Yuma area will
continue to track east toward the Panhandles and start to take a
more neutral tilt as we head into Saturday.  Ample cloud cover has
been pushed out ahead of this system limiting the heating today.
However, low level moisture is increasing and dynamic forcing out
ahead of the system will allow for elevated thunderstorms to
develop.  Some of which have already moved through the Panhandles.
Additionally, we can see a good patch of dry air in central to
eastern NM that will move into the Panhandles and quickly put an end
to most of the chances at moisture.  We`ll have to keep an eye out
for any areas that picked up decent rainfall, because as the dry air
intrudes, there could be enough clearing to allow for some localized
fog development overnight.

By Saturday late morning the trough axis should be somewhere
centered around the Midland to Lubbock area, and we`ll have to watch
it closely as it does appear it will attempt to close off.  Given
it`s location and if it can close off this would support a better
chance for wrap around rain in the Panhandles on Saturday afternoon
right now pops are 20-40%.  The other issue is that given the dry
air intrusion that we expect to occur, would say that the moisture
on the back side of the upper trough is limited, and the dry air
could erode out some, if not most of that back side moisture. We
also have a lee surface trough that will move across the Panhandles
early tomorrow and tighten up with breezy winds out of the north
after noon.  Sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are
favored.   The strongest winds will be across the western
Panhandles, and they will gradually decrease as we move further
southeast.  This will also allow for a bit of a temperature gradient
across the Panhandles, as the northwest may only be in the mid 50s,
and the southeast could be in the lower 70s.

Most precipitation chances should be over with by Saturday evening
and northwest winds will come down in the 5 to 15 mph range.  Sunday
we can expect high  pressure to move back over the south central
CONUS and warmer air will accompany.  Another lee surface low is set
to develop in southeast CO on Sunday afternoon.  Given weak flow
aloft the strength of the surface low will not be all that
impressive, but warm dry and breezy winds 10-20 mph can be expected
with highs in the 70s.  We can also expect that the strongest winds
will be in the northwest, and weakest in the southeast.  Winds could
stay up a bit overnight Sunday night and overnight lows for Monday
morning may stay above 40 for most of the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The main story of the extended will be in the Fire Weather section,
however the focus will be on Tuesday as we do anticipated a
potential wind event across the Panhandles.

Monday will be a pretty quiet mild day with highs in the 70s, to
maybe lower 80s as 850mb temperatures start to approach 20C in some
areas.  The lee surface low from Sunday still remains in southeast
CO and will tighten up a bit, allowing for more widespread southwest
winds 15-20 mph.  The OK Panhandle may have some lighter winds due
to proximity to the surface low, but overall a warm and breezy
Panhandle day.

Tuesday will be the primary concern as a well stacked jet will align
over the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon and the surface low will
tighten even further allowing or sustained winds out of the
southwest 25-35 mph, but due to ample mixing to about 700mb, and a
potent 50-70kt jet set up in the afternoon, there is a good chance
for those winds to mix down, and for wind gusts to at least be
50+mph, but will not rule out high winds in excess of 60 mph.  Winds
will also shift more westerly in the late afternoon to evening as a
Pacific front moves across the area.

Wednesday the overall stacked jet will remain aloft as broad scale
southwest flow continues due to another system deepening over the
west coast.  While We could see another breezy to windy day, and
likely the continued Fire Weather issues, there is a hint that the
jet may weaken a bit at the 500 and 700 levels, leading to wind
gusts not being as strong.  Temperatures will be a bit cooler on
Wednesday, but given that the dewpoints will be very low with that
front, the RH values could still be below 10 percent on Wednesday.
Even if it`s not a high wind day, that will still pose for continued
issues on the Fire Weather side, especially if there are any active
wildfires.

Thursday and Friday we`ll have to keep an eye on, it appears that
the continued dry and breezy pattern may want to persist into the
weekend.  The biggest concern with this pattern is that the nightly
RH values may only get into the 25-40 percent range across most
areas, and combine that with the warmer temperatures ranging from
mid 60s on the cooler days to lower 80s on the warmer days, the
concern for multiple days of critical Fire Weather are certainly
going to be the focus of the extended.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Fog has already developed over KDHT and is expected to enter into
KAMA by 12Z, based off of current satellite observations. The fog
and low clouds should linger till about 15Z before we see
visibility clear up. However, MVFR conditions are expected to
still affect KDHT and even KGUY through the afternoon. By the late
afternoon, sky conditions should finally return to VFR and stay
that way through the rest of the 12Z period. Showers have a low
chance of impacting the terminals today. If one can develop over a
TAF site this afternoon, ceilings are not expected to change
dramatically. Especially for KDHT and KGUY, who will already be
MVFR through the time frame showers are possible.

Rangel

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Warm and dry conditions will start to arrive on Sunday and persist
through much of next week.  Most days will see breezy to windy
conditions.  Overnight RH recoveries starting Sunday night will be
fair at best to poor.  Afternoon RH values in the 10-20 percent
range on Sunday and Monday, with less than 15 percent on Tuesday,
Wednesday, and Thursday.

The biggest concerns will start on Tuesday as a well stacked jet
is expected to line up over the Panhandles, and will support very
strong wind gusts over 50 mph coupled with RH values below 15
percent, and temperatures in the 70s. Wednesday will have a
similar setup, but with slightly cooler temperatures and winds not
quite as strong, we still anticipated breezy to windy conditions,
but not quite as high of winds as Tuesday. The overall setup will
continue through the end of the week. Will not rule out multiple
critical Fire Weather days, but Tuesday and Wednesday have worst
RFTI`s that range 6-8 on Tuesday and 3-7 on Wednesday. ERC`s are
projected to be above the 70th percentile, and if moisture ends up
being limited this weekend, those ERC`s could come up higher.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55